Should I Buy a Home in Sioux Falls Now or Wait for Rates to Drop?

The single most common question I hear right now is whether to buy a Sioux Falls home today or wait for mortgage rates to drop. I can't predict the future for anyone, but I can walk you through what the latest numbers, and the forecasts for the rest of the year, actually say, so you can make a confident decision either way.

Where Mortgage Rates Actually Stand Right Now

Let's start with the facts. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has hovered in the mid-6% range through this summer, per Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey: 6.43% for the week of July 2, 6.55% around mid-July, and 6.66% by late July. In other words, rates have been fairly steady in the low-to-mid-6% territory rather than swinging wildly in either direction.

What the Forecasts Say About the Rest of 2026

Most major forecasters expect modest declines rather than a sharp drop. Fannie Mae's July 2026 Housing Forecast projects rates around 6.4% through the third and fourth quarters. The Mortgage Bankers Association sees them near 6.5% for the same stretch, anda consensus of 21 forecasters compiled by ResiClub averages about 6.2% for the full year. Even the more optimistic outlooks tend to land rates in the upper-5% range by year-end, not back to the 4% or 5% rates we saw a few years ago.

What Sioux Falls Prices Are Doing

The local market still favors sellers, though it's more balanced than it was a year ago. Per Realtor Association of the Sioux Empire data, the median sale price in Sioux Falls was $335,000 in June 2026, with the broader metro area around $350,500, roughly 2% to 5% higher than a year earlier. Inventory has loosened a bit, with about 3.4 months of supply, and homes selling at about 97.5% of list price. Median days on market vary by source, but they've climbed from last year's fast sales pace, which means buyers generally have a little more time to do their homework than they did in 2022 through 2024.

The Real Cost of Waiting

Here's the math that matters more than the rate headline. If prices keep rising a few percent a year while you wait several months for rates to drop half a point, the higher purchase price can eat up much of the payment savings. And renting while you wait means building someone else's equity instead of your own for a while longer. I always encourage buyers to run the real numbers for their specific budget rather than chase a single rate number.

What I Tell Buyers Who Are Deciding

When clients ask me whether to buy now or wait, I don't give a one-size-fits-all answer. Instead we look at three things together. First, how long you plan to live in the home: if this is a house you'll keep for years, timing matters far less than finding the right home at the right price. Second, what your monthly payment actually looks like at today's rates for the homes you're considering. And third, whether waiting would realistically change what you can afford in the neighborhood you want, since a modest rate decline doesn't help if the homes you're watching keep climbing.

A Builder's Eye Helps Either Way

Whether you buy now or wait, the condition of the home matters more than the rate on the day you close. With my construction background, I walk through homes and point out what will cost you later, so you don't overpay for hidden problems or walk away from a genuinely good house over a small, fixable issue. That's how you protect your budget, regardless of where rates sit when you sign.

So, Should You Buy Now?

Here's my honest answer. If you've found the right home in the right neighborhood at a price that works within your budget, waiting to save a quarter or half a point on the rate is usually not worth the risk of rising prices and the months of equity you'd be renting through instead. If you're earlier in the process, spend the next month or two getting pre-approved, watching the neighborhoods you like, and putting your team together, so you're ready to act when the right house appears, whether rates are sitting in the low 6s or drifting into the upper 5s.